A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
